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[2023-10-11 05:38:05] <armagetron-bridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| I would have said yes. Just because a symbol isn't being traded on a given day doesn't mean there isn't any news about the corresponding company. What you need to do is work out how prevalent weightings from external sources are on actual price.
[2023-10-11 05:38:05] <armagetronbridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| I would have said yes. Just because a symbol isn't being traded on a given day doesn't mean there isn't any news about the corresponding company. What you need to do is work out how prevalent weightings from external sources are on actual price.
[2023-10-11 05:38:05] <armagetronbridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| I'd log as much data as you can, including pointers to sources of information that change the expected worth of a given symbol. Over time you can evaluate that data, and find appropriate patterns therein. One way you could do that is by giving sources of information info tags, then sorting them into classifications based on what they're sayting about a given org. Add in the expec <clipped message>
[2023-10-11 05:38:06] <armagetron-bridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| I'd log as much data as you can, including pointers to sources of information that change the expected worth of a given symbol. Over time you can evaluate that data, and find appropriate patterns therein. One way you could do that is by giving sources of information info tags, then sorting them into classifications based on what they're sayting about a given org. Add in the expec <clipped message>
[2023-10-11 05:38:06] <armagetronbridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| ted value changes against the actual value changes, and you have a predictive model.
[2023-10-11 05:38:07] <armagetron-bridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| ted value changes against the actual value changes, and you have a predictive model.
[2023-10-11 05:39:52] <armagetronbridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| Think of it like evaluating an organisations actions based on prior history. We know that, for example, a round of layoffs usually increases the share price (context-specific, but true enough), so you could use that information to adjust your strategy in such an event. Building on that, ou might be able to find market patterns that are as yet unknown.
[2023-10-11 05:39:53] <armagetron-bridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| Think of it like evaluating an organisations actions based on prior history. We know that, for example, a round of layoffs usually increases the share price (context-specific, but true enough), so you could use that information to adjust your strategy in such an event. Building on that, ou might be able to find market patterns that are as yet unknown.
[2023-10-11 05:40:22] <armagetronbridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| that's a continuous strategy, though, and not just one you can run for ninety days and expect to be solid
[2023-10-11 05:40:22] <armagetron-bridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| that's a continuous strategy, though, and not just one you can run for ninety days and expect to be solid
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[2023-10-11 16:06:33] <Lucifer_arma> that kinda raises another question. The price changes on days where there are no trades represent investor feelings about the company, while actual prices represent actual trades. So they're not the same type of information, and usually we wouldn't consider them for averaging because they're different types
[2023-10-11 16:06:33] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| that kinda raises another question. The price changes on days where there are no trades represent investor feelings about the company, while actual prices represent actual trades. So they're not the same type of information, and usually we wouldn't consider them for averaging because they're different types
[2023-10-11 16:06:52] <Lucifer_arma> of course, they could just be as different as float and int, which average together just fine :)
[2023-10-11 16:06:54] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| of course, they could just be as different as float and int, which average together just fine :)
[2023-10-11 16:07:30] <Lucifer_arma> maybe I should run averages both including and excluding those days and see if the differences are actually enough to care about it overall.
[2023-10-11 16:07:31] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| maybe I should run averages both including and excluding those days and see if the differences are actually enough to care about it overall.
[2023-10-11 16:08:24] <Lucifer_arma> but I think considering that option solves the problem, since I *can* query for both, I should include all of it in the database
[2023-10-11 16:08:25] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| but I think considering that option solves the problem, since I *can* query for both, I should include all of it in the database
[2023-10-11 16:27:12] <armagetronbridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| That's where monitoring things like investor forums and the like would be useful. You could theoretically employ an LLM to tag every available comment on a given symbol in a day, alongside a severity bias, and then use that to gauge a community consensus of sorts. That's really just a theoretical, and probably wouldn't be very effective on a small scale, but the idea is certainly <clipped message>
[2023-10-11 16:27:12] <armagetron-bridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| That's where monitoring things like investor forums and the like would be useful. You could theoretically employ an LLM to tag every available comment on a given symbol in a day, alongside a severity bias, and then use that to gauge a community consensus of sorts. That's really just a theoretical, and probably wouldn't be very effective on a small scale, but the idea is certainly <clipped message>
[2023-10-11 16:27:12] <armagetron-bridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| viable. That sort of information is what we once called "big data", although aggregate information on this sort fo scale is more reserved for the likes of tareted advertising. It's also not perfect - there's only so much information you can gather on the internet.
[2023-10-11 16:27:13] <armagetronbridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| viable. That sort of information is what we once called "big data", although aggregate information on this sort fo scale is more reserved for the likes of tareted advertising. It's also not perfect - there's only so much information you can gather on the internet.
[2023-10-11 16:27:13] <armagetron-bridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| It's worth keeping an eye on, though. The retail investor is becoming a much more significant player in the exchange market. That's not necessarily new - just look at the Mrs Watanabe phenomenon
[2023-10-11 16:27:14] <armagetronbridge> 06discord:Jack Skellingquent| It's worth keeping an eye on, though. The retail investor is becoming a much more significant player in the exchange market. That's not necessarily new - just look at the Mrs Watanabe phenomenon
[2023-10-11 16:58:31] <Lucifer_arma> I'm still far from considering that sort of data collection. and honestly, I'm probably not considering it until I've gotten deep into AI anyway. I'm still intending to get something that's profitable running using history analysis and technical indicators to come up with predictions, use a deterministic trading algorithm using those predictions. THEN, the next step,
[2023-10-11 16:58:32] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| I'm still far from considering that sort of data collection. and honestly, I'm probably not considering it until I've gotten deep into AI anyway. I'm still intending to get something that's profitable running using history analysis and technical indicators to come up with predictions, use a deterministic trading algorithm using those predictions. THEN, the next step,
[2023-10-11 16:59:16] <Lucifer_arma> is to get AI predictions. I've done some preliminary work there and determined it's a viable course, and since most trades nowadays are using AI in some form and the rich keep getting richer, it seems that I'm not the first one to have this idea either :)
[2023-10-11 16:59:16] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| is to get AI predictions. I've done some preliminary work there and determined it's a viable course, and since most trades nowadays are using AI in some form and the rich keep getting richer, it seems that I'm not the first one to have this idea either :)
[2023-10-11 16:59:57] <Lucifer_arma> I figure a trading algorithm that's profitable on basic math-based predictions should do quite well with AI predictions, considering those can get surprisingly accurate
[2023-10-11 16:59:57] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| I figure a trading algorithm that's profitable on basic math-based predictions should do quite well with AI predictions, considering those can get surprisingly accurate
[2023-10-11 17:00:47] <Lucifer_arma> after that, I'll need to see what kind of resources I have, because AI analysis of media about various symbols can be incorporated into predictions
[2023-10-11 17:00:47] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| after that, I'll need to see what kind of resources I have, because AI analysis of media about various symbols can be incorporated into predictions
[2023-10-11 17:01:37] <Lucifer_arma> but right now, I'm looking at my work on jobs yesterday having done more harm than good, and I need to fix that. My trader can't run because it can't be instantiated on the workers. :(
[2023-10-11 17:01:37] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| but right now, I'm looking at my work on jobs yesterday having done more harm than good, and I need to fix that. My trader can't run because it can't be instantiated on the workers. :(
[2023-10-11 17:03:25] <Lucifer_arma> and since I had to blow up those two tables yesterday, today's the first full sync since then. So it's having to repopulate the moving average tables completely. This is a good stress test for the new database server, at least.
[2023-10-11 17:03:26] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| and since I had to blow up those two tables yesterday, today's the first full sync since then. So it's having to repopulate the moving average tables completely. This is a good stress test for the new database server, at least.
[2023-10-11 17:07:24] <Lucifer_arma> I'm also trying to get the cluster software factored out from the stockanalyst stuff so that I can put the cluster stuff up on github and hopefully attract other people eventually :)
[2023-10-11 17:07:25] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| I'm also trying to get the cluster software factored out from the stockanalyst stuff so that I can put the cluster stuff up on github and hopefully attract other people eventually :)
[2023-10-11 17:07:59] <Lucifer_arma> (I'm keeping the stockanalyst to myself for now, unless I stumble across a programmer who's going to be able to contribute to it directly)
[2023-10-11 17:07:59] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| (I'm keeping the stockanalyst to myself for now, unless I stumble across a programmer who's going to be able to contribute to it directly)
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[2023-10-11 18:26:53] <Lucifer_arma> ok, if I did this right, traders should now be able to instantiate on the workers.
[2023-10-11 18:26:54] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| ok, if I did this right, traders should now be able to instantiate on the workers.
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